Market insights
Generated 30 Oct 2026
How to read these insights
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Every figure here compares two stored daily reports, both fitted the same way. Rate movements pair the report the picker selects with the one a day, a month or a year before it, and each bar is the change in that key-rate tenor between the two.
Spread change is the 30-year move less the 2-year move, so a negative figure is the short end moving more than the long end and the curve flattening, a positive one is the long end leading and it steepening, and zero is both ends moving together.
Spread to the fitted curve is the gilt's own gross redemption yield minus the level its neighbouring gilts imply at the same maturity: the gilt itself is left out of the interpolation, so the figure measures how far it sits off the curve rather than restating it. Its history plots that same figure across the stored reports in the window.
The commentary card is written by GiltIQ from the figures above, one reading per report date. It is a reading of the report, not a second source.
Recent rate movements
Over one day
Over one month
Over twelve months
The day, the month and the year do not all read the same way — the day is steepening, the month flattening and the year flattening — so no single description covers all three windows.
- Past day: the 2Y yield fell by 4.8 bp while the 30Y yield fell by 0.1 bp, giving a spread change of +4.8 bp — a steepening move.
- Past month: the 2Y yield fell by 2.3 bp while the 30Y yield fell by 25.2 bp, giving a spread change of −23.0 bp — a flattening move.
- Past year: the 2Y yield rose by 112.0 bp while the 30Y yield rose by 55.8 bp, giving a spread change of −56.2 bp — a flattening move.
Commentary
On 30 October 2026 the front end outperformed the long end, with the 2-year yield falling further than the 30-year, and the 2s30s spread widened as a result — a modest steepening of the curve on the day.
Over the day itself, the 2-year yield fell by 4.8 bp while the 30-year yield fell by 0.1 bp. The spread change of +4.8 bp is that difference: the short rate coming down by 4.8 bp against a long rate that was essentially unchanged at 0.1 bp lower leaves the gap between them wider by 4.8 bp, so the curve steepened.
Over the month, by contrast, the 2-year yield fell by 2.3 bp and the 30-year yield fell by 25.2 bp. With the long end falling much further than the front end, the spread change is −23.0 bp, a flattening of the curve over the month that more than offsets the day's steepening.
Over twelve months, the 2-year yield rose by 112.0 bp and the 30-year yield rose by 55.8 bp. Because the front end rose by considerably more than the long end, the spread change is −56.2 bp, and the curve has flattened materially across the year even though both yields ended higher.
The largest gilt-to-curve anomaly on the day was 0 1/8% Treasury Gilt 2028, sitting −43.0 bp from the fitted curve. That places it at the low end of its recent range: across the last 254 stored reports its deviation has run from −43.3 bp to −14.8 bp, so the gilt is trading close to its most extended cheap-to-curve reading in that window rather than merely outside it.
Written by GiltIQ from the figures on this page. A reading of the report, not advice.
Spread to the fitted curve
0 1/8% Treasury Gilt 2028 — the widest spread to the curve in this report, at −43.0 bp.
Its history covers 254 stored reports.