A curve is inverted when short yields sit above long ones, so the term spread between two and thirty years turns negative — and the report for 2 June 2026 records the opposite, an upward-sloping curve with a clearly positive spread.
What inversion means
A yield curve is normally upward-sloping: a gilt that ties money up for thirty years generally has to offer a higher gross yield than one maturing in two, because the lender is waiting longer and taking more uncertainty. An inverted curve is the opposite — short yields above long ones — and the term spread, which is the long yield minus the short yield, turns negative. Inversion is not a single number but a relationship: any two points can invert against each other, so a curve can be inverted at the short end and normal further out, and it is worth saying which spread is meant whenever the word is used.
The spread is easy to compute from a report because the report already carries the yields. Subtract the two-year yield from the thirty-year yield and the sign tells you the shape at those two points: a positive figure is an upward slope, a negative one is an inversion.
What the report for 2 June 2026 shows
On 2 June 2026 the stored report records an upward-sloping curve, not an inverted one. The nearest conventional gilt to two years' maturity stood at a gross redemption yield of 4.120%, down 0.6 basis points on the previous report, while the nearest to thirty years' maturity was 5.571%, down 4.5. Every term in between lay above the one before it, so the curve rose steadily from the short end to the long. Sixty-nine conventional gilts fell and one rose. This is a report in which the term spread is clearly positive, and a reader looking for an inversion on this date will not find one.
| Nearest to | Reported gross yield | Change since previous report |
| 2 years | 4.120% | −0.6 bp |
| 5 years | 4.292% | −2.9 bp |
| 10 years | 4.804% | −3.0 bp |
| 30 years | 5.571% | −4.5 bp |
| Spread | On 2 June 2026 |
| 2-year to 30-year | +1.451 percentage points |
| 2-year to 10-year | +0.684 percentage points |
Both spreads are positive and the longer one is the larger, which is what a normal, upward-sloping curve produces. The day's fall was itself slightly steeper at the long end — the thirty-year fell 4.5 basis points against 0.6 at the two-year — so the curve steepened a touch even as every yield fell.
Why the term spread can go negative
The shape of the curve is not a law of nature; it is a price that reflects expectations and the balance of supply and demand at each maturity. If the market expects short rates to fall in future, long yields can sit below short ones, and the curve inverts. If the market expects short rates to rise, the curve tends to steepen. That is why the term spread is watched as a summary of what the market is pricing about the path of rates rather than a verdict on the economy. A negative spread on the live curve is a moment to describe, not a prediction to repeat.
The site's gilt curve page plots each priced gilt against a fitted line for the same date, so an inversion, if it appears, shows up as the short points sitting above the long ones rather than as a number to be hunted for. The conventional gilts list lets a reader check the individual yields behind the shape.
A term spread is a description of the curve on one date, not a forecast. Whatever it says about the shape now, the next report can move it.
Reading the spread honestly
The useful discipline is to state the spread and its sign before drawing any conclusion, and to say which two points it joins. On 2 June 2026 the answer is a positive spread and a normal slope. Describing this report as an inversion would be wrong, even though the wider topic is inversion; the honest reading is that the day's curve was upward-sloping and the day's move was a small fall that steepened it a little at the far end. The day's implied breakeven, an average of 339 basis points across the index-linked gilts, was little changed, so the shape was a nominal story rather than an inflation one.
- Name the two points a spread joins; "inverted" alone does not say which part of the curve.
- Compute the sign before the conclusion: a report can be perfectly normal even on a day the topic is inversion.
- Read the day's change at both ends to see whether a fall flattened or steepened the curve.
- Treat a positive or negative spread as one date's measurement, not a standing condition.
Background, not advice
This article explains a concept and reads one stored report; it is general background, not investment advice for any reader's circumstances, and it makes no claim about the future path of rates or the shape of the curve. The figures are those the report for 2 June 2026 recorded and say nothing about the next session. The primary source for a real yield, a spread or a change is the day's report and the curve that fits it.